🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader just before it was officially announced, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of American actions. Market Movement in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month surged in the period preceding President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Trading information shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of the prior Friday. But the odds had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment just before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated an industry expert. A handful of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Intensifies Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule introduced on recently would prevent government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to current affairs. The industry were examined under the Biden administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."