Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
